1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University;2.College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University;3.School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan);4.The 2nd Geological Brigade of Sichuan, Ruoergai Ecological Restoration Field Observation and Research Station

生态系统恢复力对于维持扰动后生态系统的结构和功能稳定性至关重要,全球范围内生态系统恢复力的降低,给生态系统可持续管理带来较大不确定性。然而,对中国重大生态工程区生态系统恢复力变化的演化趋势和影响因素知之甚少。本研究以中国九个重大生态工程区为研究区,基于遥感植被指数kNDVI和自回归模型系数AR(1)识别中国重大生态工程区生态系统恢复力的演化,利用偏相关分析恢复力的影响因素。研究表明：(1)中国生态工程区呈现高绿度-高恢复力和低绿度-低恢复力的对应模式,绿度越高的工程区往往具备更高的恢复力；三江源生态保护和建设工程、京津风沙源综合治理工程相对而言处于低绿度和低恢复力。(2)2000年以来,中国重大生态工程区生态系统绿度呈总体上升趋势,恢复力呈波动趋势但总体下降,在2015年以来后恢复力处于1982年以来最低范围。(3)大部分生态工程区的生态系统恢复力对影响因素(降水变率、平均温度、温度变率、土壤湿度、总蒸散发)的响应是非单一性的,表现为正负偏相关的占比基本持平。平均降水与AR(1)呈负相关性,即降水富集区的恢复力较强；土壤湿度与AR(1)的偏相关显著比例最高。研究结果警示了中国生态工程区的生态系统恢复力持续退化风险,反映了应当将生态系统恢复力纳入生态修复评估中,采取更加有效合理的生态系统管理策略。

Ecosystem resilience is crucial for maintaining the stability of ecosystem structure and function after disturbances. The decline in global ecosystem resilience brings significant uncertainty to the sustainable management of ecosystems. However, little is known about the evolutionary trends and influencing factors of ecosystem resilience in major ecological project areas in China. This study focuses on nine major ecological project areas in China, identifying the evolution of ecosystem resilience based on remote sensing vegetation index kNDVI and autoregressive model coefficient AR(1), and analyzing the influencing factors of resilience using partial correlation analysis. The study shows that: (1) China"s ecological project areas exhibit a corresponding pattern of high greenness-high resilience and low greenness-low resilience. Project areas with higher greenness often have higher resilience. The Sanjiangyuan Ecological Protection and Construction Project and the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project have relatively low greenness and low resilience. (2) Since 2000, the greenness of major ecological project areas in China has shown an overall upward trend, while resilience has shown a fluctuating trend but overall decline, with resilience being at its lowest level since 1982 after 2015. (3) The response of ecosystem resilience in most ecological project areas to influencing factors (precipitation variability, average temperature, temperature variability, soil moisture, and total evapotranspiration) is non-unique, with the proportion of positive and negative partial correlation coefficients being roughly equal. Average precipitation is negatively correlated with AR(1), indicating that areas with abundant precipitation have stronger resilience. Soil moisture has a highest ratio of significant relation with AR(1). The results warn of the continuous degradation risk of ecosystem resilience in China"s ecological project areas, reflecting that ecosystem resilience should be included in ecological restoration assessments and more effective and reasonable ecosystem management strategies should be adopted.