School of Rail Transportation, Soochow University, Jiangsu 215131, China; Alabama Transportation Institute, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
Civil Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
Alabama Transportation Institute, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA; Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
交通碰撞中的行为路径描述了促成因素、碰撞前道路使用者行为和碰撞结果之间的连锁联系。骑自行车的人比道路上的驾车者更容易受到伤害,他们在撞车前的行为在导致受伤的途径中起着至关重要的作用。本研究的目的是开发一种方法框架,将机器学习与路径分析相结合,以量化自行车-机动车碰撞中的行为路径。具体来说,开发了两组模型用于预测:1) 给定影响因素的碰撞前行为和 2) 给定包括碰撞前行为在内的影响因素的自行车伤害严重程度。路径分析链接机器学习模型,以通过碰撞前行为的相关性建立促成因素和伤害严重程度之间的间接联系。本研究探索了五种机器学习方法,包括随机森林 (RF)、分类朴素贝叶斯 (CNB)、支持向量机 (SVM)、AdaBoost (Boost) 和神经网络 (NN)。为了减少任何单个模型的偏差,本研究提出了一种通过平均边际效应来组合模型估计的技术。本研究使用包含 9,296 次自行车与机动车碰撞的数据集来展示该框架的应用。在五个机器学习模型中,边际效应的迹象普遍一致,但它们的大小差异很大。“骑车人未能让步”的撞车前行为使骑车人受伤的严重程度增加了 1.11%。路径分析结果突出了与导致严重伤害的危险碰撞前行为相关的促成因素,例如骑自行车者中毒。该框架有望支持机构的决策,通过减少道路上的不安全行为来提高自行车安全。
The behavioral pathways in traffic crashes describe the chained linkages among contributing factors, pre-crash road user behaviors, and crash outcomes. Bicyclists are more vulnerable than motorists on road and their pre-crash behaviors play an essential role in the pathways leading to injuries. The objective of this study is to develop a methodological framework that integrates machine learning with path analysis to quantify behavioral pathways in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes. Specifically, two sets of models are developed for predicting: 1) pre-crash behaviors given contributing factors and 2) bicyclist injury severity given contributing factors including pre-crash behaviors. The path analysis chains machine learning models to establish the indirect linkages between contributing factors and injury severities through correlates of pre-crash behaviors. This study explored five machine learning methods, including Random Forest (RF), Categorical Naive Bayes (CNB), Support vector machine (SVM), AdaBoost (Boost), and Neural network (NN). To reduce the bias of any single model, this study proposes a technique to combine model estimates by averaging marginal effects. This study used a dataset containing 9,296 bicycle-motor vehicle crashes to demonstrate the application of the framework. Across five machine learning models, the signs of marginal effects generally agree but their magnitudes vary substantially. The pre-crash behavior of “bicyclist failed to yield” increases bicyclist injury severity by 1.11%. The path analysis results highlighted contributing factors related to risky pre-crash behaviors that lead to severe injuries, such as bicyclist intoxication. The framework is expected to support agencies’ decision-making to improve cycling safety by reducing unsafe behaviors on roads.